The second force in South Australian politics.
Three months after Labor's landslide, the story of this poll is not the government — it is the opposition. One Nation has consolidated second place, stretched its lead over the Liberals, and now commands the most loyal vote in the state. This is the June read, told as it happened.
One voter in four
Picture the South Australian electorate as 100 voters in a room. In March, 23 of them voted One Nation. By mid-June, 26 back the party — more than one in four — while Labor, the Liberals and the minor right all gave ground. Watch the room change.
Three voters walked to One Nation's corner of the room
Each dot is 1% of the first-preference vote. March 2026 election result vs June 2026 poll.
Dot counts are rounded to whole voters; exact shares appear in the slope chart below. Undecided voters (7%) excluded.
DEMOSAU / ECSA · MAR–JUN 2026
Only One Nation and the Greens are growing
First-preference vote share, 21 March 2026 election vs June 2026 poll.
The Liberals have not moved. Stuck on 18 and now third, they have ceded the anti-Labor franchise — the swing is flowing around them, not to them.
DEMOSAU · JUN 2026 · MOE ±3.9
The swing, party by party
Percentage-point change in primary vote since 21 March 2026.
Every point One Nation gained came out of the majors and the minor-right "others" — not from the Greens, whose rise is a separate, younger story.
DEMOSAU · JUN 2026
A two-horse race — and neither horse is Liberal
South Australia's two-party contest is now Labor versus One Nation. On the June numbers the gap has narrowed from 16.2 points at the election to 12 — a 2.1-point swing in twelve weeks. And the preference maths behind it should worry both traditional majors.
56–44: the gap narrows
Labor vs One Nation two-party preferred, June 2026 poll against the March election baseline.
Baseline is the DemosAU estimate of the March 2026 election TPP (58.1–41.9), built from seats with a Labor–One Nation final count. See methodology.
DEMOSAU ESTIMATE · JUN 2026
Liberal preferences break 2-to-1 for One Nation
Estimated share of each party's preferences flowing to One Nation vs Labor in a final count.
This is the engine of the realignment. When Liberal candidates drop out of the count, two-thirds of their voters now prefer One Nation over Labor.
DEMOSAU 2026 PREFERENCE ESTIMATES
Where the surge lives
The One Nation coalition has a shape: regional, older, trade-qualified, mortgaged. Outside Adelaide it is no longer an insurgency — at 40% it is the leading party of regional South Australia, fifteen points clear of Labor.
Regional SA is fourteen points hotter than the state
One Nation first-preference share by demographic segment. The vertical line marks the statewide 26%.
The party's weak spots are just as defined: university graduates (17%), the under-35s (20%) and inner Adelaide (21%). Hover any segment for its full five-party split.
DEMOSAU · JUN 2026 · SUBGROUP MOES ARE LARGER
Voting intention, segment by segment
First-preference vote by demographic group. Pick a dimension — the statewide row stays as your reference.
Reading the flanks: among 18–34s the Greens (26%) — not One Nation — are the second force; among the 55+ One Nation (29%) outpolls the Liberals (25%) in their strongest demographic.
DEMOSAU · JUN 2026
The loyalty machine
Poll surges usually leak. This one doesn't. 96% of March One Nation voters are still with the party — the stickiest vote in South Australia — while every other cohort sheds support, and much of what leaks flows rightward.
Where each March vote sits today
Ribbon width is share of the March electorate. Hover a ribbon or node to isolate its flows.
June columns show only flows from March voters, so totals differ slightly from the June topline (which adds previous non-voters and leaners). Thin grey ribbons are residual movement not itemised in the report.
DEMOSAU · JUN 2026 · SHARE-WEIGHTED
The stickiest vote in the state
Share of each party's March voters still with it in June.
DEMOSAU · JUN 2026
Non-voters lean away from the majors
June intention of people who didn't vote in March or don't recall their vote.
Greens 27 and One Nation 21 lead this disengaged pool — the two insurgent brands are competing for the same newly-arriving voters from opposite flanks.
DEMOSAU · JUN 2026
A surge without a face
Here is the paradox that should reframe every strategy in the state: One Nation is rising while its leader's standing falls. Cory Bernardi is the least popular leader tested (net −21) — the surge is a vote for a grievance, not for a person. Attacking the messenger won't stop it.
Malinauskas still towers — but everyone is sliding
Positive / neutral / negative opinion of each leader, centred on neutral.
All three leaders' net ratings fell since March — the Premier by 7 points, Hurn by 3, Bernardi by 5. The sour mood is general; only One Nation converts it into votes.
DEMOSAU · JUN 2026
Malinauskas 51, Hurn 20 — but "don't know" is the mover
Preferred premier, with change since the March poll.
The Premier shed 5 points and almost all of it landed in "don't know" (+6) — softening, not switching. Note the question offers no One Nation option.
DEMOSAU · JUN 2026
The party outruns its leader
Change since March 2026.
DEMOSAU · MAR–JUN 2026
The waters it swims in
For the first time in this cycle, more South Australians say the state is on the wrong track than the right one. And when they name the problem, six in ten say the same two words: cost of living, housing. That grievance is the tide lifting One Nation.
The mood crosses over
Is SA heading in the right or wrong direction? March poll vs June poll.
Net sentiment has flipped from +8 in March to −1 in June. March figures derived from the published change columns.
DEMOSAU · JUN 2026
Sixty percent name cost of living or housing
Open-ended responses, categorised. Highlighted bars are the two dominant grievances.
Classic culture-war terrain barely registers: immigration 6%, environment 3%. The One Nation surge is riding an economic grievance, and any counter-strategy has to answer it in those terms.
DEMOSAU · JUN 2026 · OPEN-ENDED, CATEGORISED
Methodology
How the two-party-preferred estimate is built
Question wording
Voting intention: "If a State Election for South Australia was held today, which one of the following would you vote for?" — Labor (with Peter Malinauskas as Leader) / Liberal (with Ashton Hurn as Leader) / One Nation / The Greens / Any Other Candidate / Don't Know (order randomised, Don't Know last). Initial undecideds were asked a leaner question; remaining undecideds (7%) excluded.
Preferred premier: "Who is your preferred Premier?" — Peter Malinauskas (Labor) / Ashton Hurn (Liberal) / Don't Know.
Leader ratings: "What is your opinion on the following people?" — Positive / Neutral / Negative, people and answer order randomised.
Direction: "In your opinion, is South Australia heading in the right direction or the wrong direction?"
Biggest issue: "In your opinion, what is the biggest issue facing South Australia today?" — open-ended; responses grouped into categories for reporting.